Spice and Wolf and economic fallacies
January 23rd, 2008 by Shirukii
TAIL FEEL SO GOOD!
First off, I’m not picking up Spice and Wolf to blog in my usual summary + thoughts format, I just happen to be free of work and bored as hell at the moment, whether this becomes a weekly thing remains to be seen.
Before I get into the meat of this post, I’d first like to voice my discontent about a single point in this episode. Horo, clothed, for the full episode…I mean, that’s just wrong.
It’s economics tiem! While I don’t exactly have a PhD in the field (hell, the only experience I have with economics is two intro level courses on it) I do have the basic knowledge of root market trends. And so, Spice and Wolf leaves me a little confused. The currency deal that is in progress right now is making less and less sense as the minutes pass. From what was inferred at the end of this week’s episode, a third party is rallying for mass investment in a certain currency. Now that’s all well and good, if numerous investors begin to concentrate on a single currency, its value skyrockets, confidence in it rises and it becomes a trusted standard.
However, that’s where the confusion starts, despite this plot, they are actually devaluing the currency, which makes absolutely no sense. It will eventually become noticed, confidence in the currency will plummet and investors will begin to mass sell in panic, crippling the currency. I then thought that perhaps someone is planning for that exact scenario to occur, but more than likely if that were the case, the makers of the currency would notice the sudden rush to buy and increase its worth in response.
In any case, the idea of making significant profit off currency trade in such a small tightly knit economy isn’t very viable in the first place. Even more curious is Lawrence’s exclamation of knowing a way to make money off a devaluing currency. From the looks of it, their society doesn’t have a formal trading market, so it’s not like he can sell short and make profit that way.
tl;rd: there’s some shoddy market forces going on in this anime, or perhaps its just beyond my scope of knowledge
om nom nom nom nom
But I digress, after all, Spice and Wolf isn’t about economics, it’s all Horo! She continues to be an awesome lead with quick thinking and the ability to adapt her personality at a whim to fit the situation. She’s quite a capable merchant herself, conning that guy to buy Lawrence’s fur at such a high price. Though, I’d think that in a world where trading is far from an international affair, that screwing people over in a deal would do more harm than good in the long run. Establishing yourself as a trustworthy partner seems like a smarter approach given the circumstances. *shrugs*
I’m still wondering what Spice and Wolf will choose to focus on. At the moment it has the makings of a romance series with Horo and Lawrence at the center but it also has the whole economics angle to it. While the two may be able to coexist, more than likely, especially with only 12 episodes at their disposal, trying to do both will result in a mediocre job done on both parts. Any manga readers who could give us an idea on how this all starts to come together?
I’m also surprised he’s lasted this long. Everyone is 10% for Horo.
~ Shirukii ~
19 Responses to “Spice and Wolf and economic fallacies”
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Speaking of economic fallacies, that furry scale.
ears + tail = furry
That’s all there is to it.
There is something else lying behind the scheme. It’s not so much a fallacy as that there is something that they haven’t yet tell you. It has something to do with the the King and trading rights.
Let’s see if that’s enough for you to figure it out =P
Horo made lawrence look kinda of dumb by knowing how to hustle fur better than him and he is suppose to be one of the best merchants. Judging from the little preview for episode 4 it looks like it will be a little bit more romance to come.
I just listened to the ED again. I think it’s about Lawrence impregnating Horo.
The subbing group I watched from didn’t translate the small paragraph which appeared in the beginning. From what I understand, in most of the other anime I’ve watched, questionable content is forewarned in the prior episode or two. For example, when Green Green first aired, a paragraph at the beginning of each episode would tell the viewers that the NEXT episode would be aired further into the morning (For sexual content reasons).
One thing to say to sum up my conclusions.
I’d her tail.
While the two may be able to coexist, more than likely, especially with only 12 episodes at their disposal, trying to do both will result in a mediocre job done on both parts. Any manga readers who could give us an idea on how this all starts to come together?
the manga is about as far along as the anime, so I’m guessing you meant novel ;)
The best way to sum it up would be… think of the economics side as the one providing problems/hurdles for Lawrence/Horo to overcome, while the romance side of things is something that slowly develops over time.
The 12 episode limit has me a bit worried too. If the OP sequence is any indication, then they’re aiming to cover the plot for both novel one and two (and they’re on track too… the 3 eps. thus far has covered about half of one). This of course, means that many things are left out or skimmed over w/o any explanation.
assuming that they do stick to the plot of the novel, expect to see more of the economic/action side of things than romance, as that doesn’t really pick up ’til novel 3 and 4.
When you think about it, it was totally worth it to that fur merchant to overpay and buy out the fur. He wasn’t so much paying a premium for the fur as he was buying a gimmick idea. That could really pay off in the long term, allowing him to make back his coins easily.
What if Lawrence is actually selling wolf fur?! O_O
That changes everything…
…
>>What if Lawrence is actually selling wolf fur?! O_O
I believe it was explicitly stated what kind of animal the fur was from, and that that animal was not a wolf.
Wasn’t it marmot fur or something? The pelts were way too small to be wolves, unless they were miniature wolves.
Lawrence - Yes I have, she’s pregnant.
@ lolikit: Lies, I’ll stick to my percentages, that way I have deniability.
I’d plant seven seeds inside of her, if you know what I mean.
@ Lupus: Aww, key information not given, lame. I can’t really wager a guess.
@ proxyman: Well…Horo is hundreds of years old, and Lawrence is 25, so she had a bit of a head start, haha.
@ Pyrrhusonline: I’m continually surprised at how many readers here actually get the meme referencing. Just how many of you guys lurk anyways?!
@ Mike: That kind of sucks then, I hope there’s a second season to get to all that goodness then. And yea, I guess I meant novel, seeing as the manga is only up to chapter 4 or so.
@ Kabitzin: But Horo didn’t even sell him the idea of dressing up the fur with the smell of fruit. She just lied and said that the fur had absorbed the smell from the abundance of it in the forest.
@ Servbot: I think it was marmot fur, they’re something akin to squirrels.
@ Michael: Should have used Lawrence in the name field =P
Actually, what I think is going on is this. Think of the various different coins as various currencys from all over the world. The value of each coin in dependent on the silver content in each one. Eg: a silver coin with 20% silver might be able to buy an apple, while a silver coin with 60% silver might be able to buy three apples. Just think of the coin in question as US dollars. So, in order to flaunt their power, US will put more silver in the coins, which will in turn drive up their face value, essentially, boasting to the rest of the country how rich and powerfull their country are. Then, something happens and they need to cut down on the amount of silver they put into that stuff. After awhile, if someone finds out about it, the value of the coin goes down. Like the value of US dollars dropping. Still, one thing I don’t really get at this point in the way to earn money of a devaluing currency. Welp, I guess we’ll have to wait till next week.
It’s quite simple, Alias. Someone in the know will sell new mints of the coins that were just recently 60 percent silver. However, the original seller knows that the new coins are devalued and will buy them at cost. But he will still resell the coins at the original 60 percent silver value. By the time people find out about the devalued coins, the moneychanger will have run off scot-free with the profit.
@ItAintEazy
Actually it’s something quite different, but you’ll just have to wait and see ;)
LOL this is the way merchant should be. If you are playing/living in a MMORPG’s world you should understand this kind of thing.
@Shirukii: Himitsu.
……….There’s a girl with wolf ears and tail who has lived longer then humans and the thing you guys think is off is the economics? I think you all need to sort out your priorities. lol Great show and manga by the way.
ItAintEazy gave a brief explanation as to why the devaluation benefits the moneychanger. However it is forgotten to be explained that the one who benefitted the most is the country (the king) that devalued the currency.
By devaluing the currency as being explained in the anime, the country will have more money (silver) in the circulation of the market. The scheme is impossible in current modern technology world with the existence of online currency exchange and all. However in medieval era with information disparity between normal trader and money changers, it becomes possible.
In short term both the country and money changer will earn money from devalued currency. There are several possible outcomes that comes in future (beyond what is being explained in the anime).
One, the currency will lose the trust earned and devalued further until it practically becomes worthless (even keeping the silver content equal) and thus becomes the end of the country. During such case, the country may choose to adopt more reliable currency while letting its original currency disappear (almost like Euro currency just that they have no problem) to continue trading back again.
Another possibility that is likely is that after the devaluation of the currency everything will remain the same as the silver content is the main issue here and will not have any long term effect other than the currency that is devalued causing the country’s imported goods prices to inflate.
End of explanation that is necessary (the rest are too long and complicated to explain).
Hope this enlighten some possibilities that left unanswered.